Chris Luckett

The Golden Globe Awards are always unpredictable, as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association exists outside of the world of critics and other awards shows. As comparison: The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (who give out the Oscars) is comprised of over 7000 film industry leaders and contributors. The HFPA is comprised of 90 entertainment journalists.

Because of that, it’s much more of a crapshoot in predicting the winners, as a single person’s vote weighs far more heavily and the group as a whole often votes emotionally rather than objectively or even politically. (Recall, if you will, the lambasting they received after the bevy of Golden Globe nominations they gave The Tourist.)

Still, that’s half the fun. People who follow film can pretty accurately predict the Oscars, but the Golden Globes are anyone’s game. Here are my dart-in-the-wall predictions. What are yours?

(And don’t forget to download The Apple Box’s handy Golden Globe Awards 2016 ballot here!)

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MOTION PICTURE (DRAMA)

Carol
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Will win: Spotlight
Dark horse: Carol 

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MOTION PICTURE (COMEDY)

The Big Short
Joy
The Martian
Spy
Trainwreck

Will win: The Big Short
Dark horse: The Martian 

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DIRECTOR

Todd Haynes (Carol)
Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)
Ridley Scott (The Martian)

Will win: Ridley Scott (The Martian)
Dark horse: George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

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ACTOR (DRAMA)

Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Will Smith (Concussion)

Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Dark horse: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)

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ACTOR (COMEDY)

Christian Bale (The Big Short)
Steve Carell (The Big Short)
Matt Damon (The Martian)
Al Pacino (Danny Collins)
Mark Ruffalo (Infinitely Polar Bear)

Will win: Matt Damon (The Martian)
Dark horse: Steve Carell (The Big Short)

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ACTRESS (DRAMA)

Cate Blanchett (Carol)
Brie Larson (Room)
Rooney Mara (Carol)
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)

Will win: Brie Larson (Room)
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)

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ACTRESS (COMEDY)

Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)
Melissa McCarthy (Spy)
Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van)
Lily Tomlin (Grandma)

Will win: Amy Schumer (Trainwreck)
Dark horse: Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)

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SUPPORTING ACTOR

Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)
Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
Sylvester Stallone (Creed)

Will win: Sylvester Stallone (Creed)
Dark horse: Paul Dano (Love & Mercy)

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SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jane Fonda (Youth)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Helen Mirren (Trumbo)
Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)

Will win: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)
Dark horse: Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)

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ANIMATED FEATURE

Anomalisa
The Good Dinosaur
Inside Out
The Peanuts Movie
Shaun the Sheep Movie

Will win: Inside Out
Dark horse: Anomalisa

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FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

The Brand New Testament
The Club
The Fencer
Mustang
Son of Saul

Will win: Son of Saul
Dark horse: Mustang 

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SCREENPLAY

Emma Donoghue (Room)
Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer (Spotlight)
Charles Randolph and Adam McKay (The Big Short)
Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)
Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)

Will win: Quentin Tarantino (The Hateful Eight)
Dark horse: Charles Randolph and Adam McKay (The Big Short) 

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ORIGINAL SONG

“Love Me Like You Do” (Fifty Shades of Grey)
“One Kind of Love” (Love & Mercy)
“See You Again” (Furious 7)
“Simple Song #3” (Youth)
“Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre)

Will win: “One Kind of Love” (Love & Mercy)
Dark horse: “See You Again” (Furious 7)

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SCORE

Carter Burwell (Carol)
Alexandre Desplat (The Danish Girl)
Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)
Daniel Pemberton (Steve Jobs)
Ryuichi Sakamoto and Alva Noto (The Revenant)

Will win: Ennio Morricone (The Hateful Eight)
Dark horse: Carter Burwell (Carol)