OSCARS 2016: Final Predictions

Photo: EPA

Photo: EPA

Chris Luckett

Left your Oscar ballot to the last minute? Want to show up your friends with a little friendly competition? Here’s my guide for what to expect tonight during the 88th Academy Awards.


BEST PICTURE

While The Revenant has remained the frontrunner since nominations came out six week ago, Spotlight and The Big Short have been gaining steam. My guess is it won’t quite be enough to overtake DiCaprio’s opus, but one thing’s for sure: Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn don’t stand a chance.

The Revenant                   30%
Spotlight                              28%

The Big Short                     22%
Mad Max: Fury Road         8%
The Martian                          5%
Room                                        3%
Brooklyn                                  2%
Bridge of Spies                      2%


BEST DIRECTOR

Odds are good that Iñárritu will become the fourth person to win back-to-back Best Director trophies, although if Mad Max: Fury Road gains enough momentum through the evening, it could translate into a victory for Miller, whose cinematic vision was unrivalled last year.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)     38%
George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)       30%

Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)                              20%
Adam McKay (The Big Short)                           9%
Lenny Abrahamson (Room)                              3%


BEST ACTOR

Not even worth debating. DiCaprio’s the closest thing to a lock there is this year.

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)     70%
Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)        13%

Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)               9%
Matt Damon (The Martian)                           6%
Bryan Cranston (Trumbo)                              2%


BEST ACTRESS

While not as certain a winner as DiCaprio, Larson’s definitely the odds-on favourite. If there’s a dark horse, though, it’s Ronan; Brooklyn only has a few nominations, but the love for the movie is almost entirely due to her performance.

Brie Larson (Room)                            60%
Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)                22%

Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)        8%
Cate Blanchett (Carol)                         7%
Jennifer Lawrence (Joy)                     3%


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

While the nostalgia of Sylvester Stallone and the full-circle of his journey from 1976’s Rocky to last year’s Creed is expected to carry him to a victory, it may not be as foregone a conclusion as many think.

Sylvester Stallone (Creed)              40%
Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight)                   25%

Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)      18%
Tom Hardy (The Revenant)              10%
Christian Bale (The Big Short)          7%


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Despite the infuriating fact Vikander’s role is incontrovertibly a lead performance, expect her to walk away with the trophy for Best Supporting Actress. If not her, it’s a rather open field.

Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)                   38%
Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight)     19%

Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)                                    17%
Rooney Mara (Carol)                                              15%
Rachel McAdams (Spotlight)                             11%


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

In a year full of spectacle and visuals, expect the Academy to reward the most pure screenplay from a writing standpoint. If Spotlight doesn’t take it, it’s practically a toss-up.

Spotlight                                    40%
Inside Out                                  18%

Ex Machina                               15%
Straight Outta Compton     15%
Bridge of Spies                         12%


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Room could sneak a victory if voters decide raw emotion trumped clever gloss last year, but expect the Academy to reward The Big Short’s screenplay for making a notably confusing subject palatable to the general moviegoing public.

The Big Short     50%
Room                      25%

Brooklyn               12%
The Martian           9%
Carol                          4%


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Inside Out (65%), Anomalisa (15%), Shaun the Sheep Movie (8%), When Marnie was There (7%), Boy and the World (5%)

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

The Revenant (40%), Mad Max: Fury Road (22%), Sicario (20%), The Hateful Eight (10%), Carol (8%)

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Mad Max: Fury Road (30%), Cinderella (28%), Carol (20%), The Danish Girl (12%), The Revenant (10%)

BEST DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE) 

Amy (35%), The Look of Silence (32%), Cartel Land (20%), What Happened, Miss Simone? (7%), Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom (6%)

BEST DOCUMENTARY (SHORT)

Body Team 12 (35%), Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah (25%), A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness (20%), Chau Beyond the Lines (12%), Last Day of Freedom (8%)

BEST FILM EDITING

Mad Max: Fury Road (30%), The Big Short (28%), The Revenant (23%), The Force Awakens (10%), Spotlight (9%)

BEST FOREIGN-LANGAUGE FEATURE

Son of Saul (35%), Mustang (32%), A War (20%), Embrace of the Serpent (8%), Theeb (5%)

BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING 

Mad Max: Fury Road (45%), The Revenant (35%), The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (10%)

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

The Hateful Eight (55%), The Force Awakens (18%), Carol (15%), Sicario (8%), Bridge of Spies (4%)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

“‘Til it Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground (35%), “Writing’s on the Wall,” Spectre (25%), “Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey (18%), “Simple Song 3,” Youth (12%), “Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction (10%)

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Mad Max: Fury Road (30%), The Revenant (25%), Bridge of Spies (20%), The Martian (14%), The Danish Girl (11%)

BEST SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

World of Tomorrow (30%), Sanjay’s Super Team (28%), Bear Story (25%), We Can’t Live Without Cosmos (10%), Prologue (7%)

BEST SHORT FILM (LIVE-ACTION)

Shok (30%), Ave Maria (27%), Stutterer (22%), Everything Will Be Okay (11%), Day One (10%)

BEST SOUND EDITING

Mad Max: Fury Road (30%), The Revenant (22%), The Force Awakens (20%), The Martian (17%), Sicario (11%)

BEST SOUND MIXING

Mad Max: Fury Road (35%), The Revenant (25%), The Force Awakens (18%), The Martian (15%), Bridge of Spies (7%)

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Mad Max: Fury Road (30%), The Force Awakens (28%), The Revenant (20%), The Martian (12%), Ex Machina (10%)


(Cover artwork: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences)

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