The 86th Academy Awards are just four weeks away, but it’s often in the last month before the Oscars that the tide can turn and upsets come about. (This time last year, Lincoln was expected to win Best Picture, not Argo. Two years before that, the same thing happened between The Social Network and The King’s Speech.) Much can change between now and March 2. For now, though, here’s how 2014’s Oscar race is shaping up.